So if the only facts I knew about this election were that it
was 1) October of an odd-numbered year; 2) Democrats had an average
lead of about 7 points on the generic ballot; and 3) the incumbent
Democratic president had an approval rating in the low forties, I would
not believe that Democrats were poised to retake the chamber.
And
we know more about this election than those three facts. Here’s one
fact: The newfound Democratic advantage on the generic ballot comes in
at the height of a government shutdown, which could easily be as bad as
it gets for the GOP. And yet even now, Democrats aren’t approaching 50
percent of the vote in generic ballot surveys. So if there’s no tsunami
now, there’s plenty of cause to be doubtful that one will emerge later.
The preponderance of undecided voters are Republican-leaners who voted
to reelect their representatives last November; they’ll probably come
home by Election Day.
Just consider the last 13 months. The
president was reelected, Newtown, the fiscal cliff, gun control failed,
the NSA and Snowden, the sequester, immigration reform stalled, Syria,
and now a two-week government shutdown. Some of these things benefited
the Democrats, others, probably more, benefited the Republicans. We live
in interesting times, and memories of the shutdown will fade by
November 2014.
They'll go back to the GOP for the same reason "moderate" House Republicans all voted to shut down the government. They hate Obama and the Democrats more than they hate losing, and if their desire to see Democrats and their supporters punished wasn't white hot before, it's now burning a hole through the ground towards the center of the earth.
Some 95% of House members will be re-elected next year. That will include the Tea Party, and that's just reality.
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