Steve M. has a theory on the debt-o-rama endgame, and it's basically "this is only the beginning". Ted Cruz will exact his pound of flesh by delaying a Senate vote into Thursday or Friday, and we have one of those "international economic whoopsie" things:
Somewhere in the period of Cruz's delay and the House GOP's threat to
block the deal in that chamber, U.S. and global stock markets are going
to go into free fall. These won't be irreversible plummets -- they'll
just be a warning shot across Boehner's bow.
I think he'll respond then -- but I'm not sure. He's put his
Speakership above all else so far. It may take more pressure from the
business mainstream, either against Crazy Caucus members or on behalf of
non-crazies. That kind of pressure seems slow in coming, but I think
the prospect of default will concentrate minds.
So I think this will end -- for a few months. This is a short-term
deal, after all. We'll be back in crisis again in a few months.
I'd like to think President Obama's demands that the hostage-taking stop, but the GOP is now fully vested in Obama Derangement Syndrome, so Steve is most likely correct. There will be a "default" and Friday is going to be a miserable day for the markets, with the understanding that this will be "resolved" before Monday, one way or the other.
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