Date Intrade Futures DJIA 09/21 50.8 to 48.0 Obama 11388 Sunday 09/22 52.0 to 46.8 Obama 11015 09/23 52.7 to 47.2 Obama 10854 09/24 55.3 to 44.5 Obama 10825 Obama rises from 51 to 55, market drops 550 09/25 55.8 to 43.8 Obama 11022 09/26 56.3 to 43.6 Obama 11143 09/27 56.4 to 42.6 Obama 11143 Saturday 09/28 57.0 to 41.7 Obama 11143 Sunday 09/29 61.0 to 38.1 Obama 10365 Obama rises from 55 to 61, market drops 450 ... 10/10 79.0 to 21.5 Obama 8451 Obama rises from 61 to 79, market drops 850 Some commenters posit that the market drop caused Obama's chances to increase. I assert that the opposite actually happened.
Consider that on June 5, the market stood at 12,604. Despite a 1,200 point drop over the summer, Obama and McCain's election chances were virtually even into late September. But once Obama began to truly separate himself from McCain, the market responded with a precipitous drop.
"A brief postscript to this week's Wisdom of Crowds post"
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