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Post a Comment On: Indeed Wrestling

"Mookieghana's North American Indy Power 325 Rankings (YTD 2014)"

2 Comments -

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Blogger Mookie said...

I'll do my best to explain the voodoo wrestlenomics that generate the rankings.

Let's take AJ Styles.

Among the companies in my database, Styles worked 18 matches for "non-major" companies. Those companies held shows in many places including Canada, Central States (Ohio/Illinois), Northern States (NY/PA/NJ), Pacific States (California) and Southern States (North Carolina). In the end he gets 3 points out of a possible five points for working in Canada (1 point) and because he had several matches in Northern States (1 point) and several matches in Central States (1 point).

(To qualify for the list, you had to have at least 2 points.)

Styles record (all North American companies including major companies) was 23 singles matches and 3 tag matches for 26 total matches. His singles record was 17-4-2 (81% win) and his tag record was 3-0 (100% win). This put his "estimated singles wins" at (17+4+2)*.81=18.63 and his "estimated tag wins" at (3+0+0)*1.0=3.

AJ Styles' "estimated single wins" (18.63) was 8th highest among everyone on the list (Michael Elgin, Kevin Steen, Chris Hero, Cedric Alexander, Caleb Konley, Lince Dorado, Danny Duggan all had more). AJ Styles' "estimated tag wins" (3.00) was 125th on the list (the leaders were Michael Elgin, Davey Richards, BJ Whitmer, JT Dunn, David Starr, Mason Cutter, Devin Cutter, Dylan Bostic).

If you think of a wrestling card completion going from 0% to 100% (opening match at 0%, last match at 100%), AJ Styles average "placement" on the card was 92.6%. That put his "main event equivalence" at 93%x26 matches=24.09. Among all the wrestlers on the list his ""main event equivalence" (24.09) was ranked 16th (top ten were Michael Elgin, Davey Richards, Kevin Steen, Chris Hero, Jimmy Jacobs, Kyle O'Reilly, Cedric Alexander, Caleb Konley, Rich Swann, Matt Hardy).

So, his "weighted average" was a combination of Singles Win Rank(3x), Tag Win Rank (2x), Placement rank (1x) which was (8*3+125*2+16*1)/6=48.333
Final score was then "adjusted" by the absolute placement, [1.1-placement]x"weighted average"=[1.1-.926]x48.33 = 8.41 score.

That was AJ Styles' "all companies" score (8.41). Among everyone on the list, it was 7th (behind Michael Elgin, Kevin Steen, Jimmy Jacobs, Matt Hardy, Ron Mathis, Danny Duggan). However, we're not done.

3:23 PM

Blogger Indeed Wrestling said...

Next, we calculate all of the same variables, but we do it just looking at match records for non-major companies. AJ Styles was 13-3-1 singles (81%) and 1-0 tag (100%). His "estimated singles wins" was 13.8 and "estimated tag wins" was 1.0. That put him at 13th and 240th respectively.

On non-major shows, his average placement on the card was similar, 93.5%. His "main event equivalence" for non-major companies was 16.8, which put him at 36th. His weighted average would be (13*3+240*2+36)/6=92.5. Final score is adjusted by absolutel placement (93.5%) so [1.1-0.935]x92.5=15.26.
This is AJ Styles' "non-major companies" score (15.26) which put him 15th among everyone. (The top ten for the "non-major companies" were Michael Elgin, Heidi Lovelace, Joey Ryan, Ron Mathis, Lince Dorado, JT Dunn, Danny Duggan, Jimmy Jacobs, Gory, Matt Hardy).

Now, we have two rankings: all-companies (Styles was 7th) and non-major companies (Styles was 15th).

His final score is a combination of these two factors with the original "points" metric thrown in.
So, his final score was calculated at (points/5)x((400-[all companies rank])*3+(400-[non-major companies rank])*2)/5. In this case, his score would be (2/5)x[(400-7)*3+(400-15)*2]/5=60%*(1179+770)/5=234.
That number (234) was ranked among everyone and that's where AJ Styles ended up as 19th.

To be honest, there's really a very tight pack as numerous people have scores that range from 220 to 240 Matt Hardy, Ron Mathis, Lince Dorado, AJ Styles, JT Dunn, Gory, David Starr, Jack Pollock, Matt Cage, Drake Younger. There's a "random variable" in my data to prevent ties and when you're dealing with many people who have the same tag records (or whatnot), people really start to fly around when you rerun the data. It's a shortcoming in the model based on not enough matches. I can certainly talk about the reasoning behind each of the steps, but basically it was just something I threw together with the idea that I wanted to reward people who
(1) won a lot (2) worked both tag & singles (3) worked in several regions (4) worked near the top of the card.

So, the short answer is that if I re-run the model, even today, there's some significant shuffling that happens naturally (or randomly) so it might be more accurate to band the wrestlers where you have the top four (Elgin, Steen, Hero, Ryan) as one group and then the next band and so forth.

I know this all sounds crazy and well, it is.

6:43 AM

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