This year's Wrestling Observer Hall of Fame inductions brought Henri Deglane, Dr. Wagner Sr., Atlantis, Kensuke Sasaki, Hiroshi Tanahashi and All Japan Women's Pro Wrestling promoters Takeshi Matsunaga and his brothers into the elite ethereal HOF.
[Image]
While only one of my picks (Matsunaga) got in, most of my picks (Rock & Roll Express, Brock Lesnar, Dick Murdoch,Edge, Gene Okerlund, Jimmy Hart) finished respectably on the ballot except for Batista who received less than 10% of the vote and is going to be dropped off next year's ballot.
Hiroshi Tanahashi's quick ascension and successful election places an interesting spotlight on other young, modern wrestlers that are soon to join the ballot. While John Cena was a logical 2012 inductee (top star in the world's largest and most successful modern pro-wrestling company for many consecutive years), upcoming candidates for future years will include CM Punk, Daniel Bryan (f.k.a. American Dragon/Bryan Danielson) and possibly Mistico (currently Sin Cara in WWE).
As voters try to examine the record of these wrestlers considering factors such as drawing power, working ability and promo skills, one reference source to consider would be the results from the annual Year-End Wrestling Observer Awards (1980-2012). In theory, many benchmarks for the career of these new HOF candidates could be captured in how they finished in the WO Awards spotlight.
While not every single category has been offered every year, there are some important categories which have very rich histories which we can examine:
Top Tier
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 33 years
TAG TEAM OF THE YEAR: 33 years
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 32 years
MOST CHARISMATIC: 33 years
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 27 years
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 16 years
Mid-Tier
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 33 years
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 32 years
BEST BRAWLER: 33 years
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: 33 years
MOST UNDERRATED: 33 years
MOST IMPROVED: 33 years
BEST GIMMICK: 27 years
BEST HEEL: 17 years
BEST BABYFACE: 17 years
READERS´ FAVORITE WRESTLER: 20 years
* Some members of the HOF had their peak years outside of the context of these awards, so it's not surprising to see them fare poorly on this list.
* Voters seem more likely to reward strong performances by North American territories than Mexican or Japanese companies. (For instance, HOF member Aja Kong only has two appearances on this list: 1990's #5 Best Brawler and 1991's #4 Best Heel where non-HOF member The Miz finished in the top five for most improved three times, most charismatic once, best on interviews once, best gimmick once and twice among the tag team of the year contenders.)
* One element stressed in HOF eligibility is demonstrating value over a longer period time (as opposed to single short, hot period). It may be important to balance both total points with years achieving top status.
UNIQUE YEARS APPEARING WITHIN EACH CATEGORY OF AWARDS NAMETOPMIDOTHERHOF?
Ric Flair
21
16
3
YES
Hulk Hogan
14
12
0
YES
Kenta Kobashi
13
8
0
YES
Toshiaki
Kawada
12
1
0
YES
Jim Cornette
11
0
24
YES
Chris Jericho
11
8
0
YES
Chris Benoit
10
19
0
YES
Mitsuharu
Misawa
10
10
7
YES
John Cena
10
2
0
YES
Paul Heyman
9
0
21
YES
Shawn
Michaels
9
7
0
YES
The Rock
9
5
0
YES
Bryan
Danielson
8
12
0
NO
Sting
8
9
0
NO
Arn Anderson
8
0
0
NO
Mick Foley
7
10
3
YES
Steve Austin
7
9
1
YES
CM Punk
7
7
1
NO
Terry Gordy
7
7
0
YES
Great Muta
7
6
1
YES
Jerry Lawler
6
5
10
YES
Mistico
6
5
0
NO
Eddie
Guerrero
6
5
0
YES
Naomichi
Marufuji
6
4
0
NO
Edge
6
3
0
NO
Kenta
6
2
0
NO
James Storm
6
0
0
NO
Kurt Angle
5
11
0
YES
Jushin Liger
5
7
3
YES
Atsushi Onita
5
6
1
YES
Shinjiro
Otani
5
5
0
NO
Akira Maeda
5
4
4
YES
Brock Lesnar
5
4
0
NO
Scott Steiner
5
3
0
NO
Road Warrior
Hawk
5
3
0
YES
Rick Steiner
5
2
0
NO
Jay Briscoe
5
2
0
NO
Jun Akiyama
5
2
0
NO
Genichiro
Tenryu
5
1
0
YES
Mark Briscoe
5
1
0
NO
Ultimo
Guerrero
5
0
0
NO
Rey Bucanero
5
0
0
NO
GSP
5
0
0
NO
Rey Mysterio
Jr
4
13
0
YES
Bret Hart
4
8
0
YES
Bobby Eaton
4
8
0
YES
Steve
Williams
4
6
0
YES
Manami Toyota
4
6
0
YES
Roddy Piper
4
5
1
YES
Michael Hayes
4
2
6
YES
Jeff Hardy
4
3
0
NO
Road Warrior
Animal
4
3
0
YES
Koji Kanemoto
4
3
0
NO
Kevin Steen
4
3
0
NO
Hiroshi
Tanahashi
4
2
0
YES
Stan Lane
4
1
0
YES
El Generico
4
1
0
NO
Akira Taue
4
0
0
NO
Ted DiBiase
3
7
1
YES
Riki Choshu
3
2
11
YES
Yuji Nagata
3
6
0
NO
Samoa Joe
3
6
0
NO
Christian
3
5
0
NO
Matt Hardy
3
5
0
NO
Christopher
Daniels
3
4
0
NO
Davey
Richards
3
4
0
NO
The Miz
3
4
0
NO
Perro Aguayo
3
3
0
YES
Jimmy Snuka
3
3
0
NO
Shane Douglas
3
3
0
NO
Prince Devitt
3
3
0
NO
Naoya Ogawa
3
1
0
NO
Bob Sapp
3
1
0
NO
Dan Kroffat
3
1
0
NO
Doug Furnas
3
1
0
NO
Harley Race
3
0
1
YES
Chael Sonnen
3
0
0
NO
Tom Prichard
3
0
0
NO
Chris Harris
3
0
0
NO
Bobby Roode
3
0
0
NO
Matt Jackson
3
0
0
NO
Marty
Jannetty
3
0
0
NO
Kazushi
Sakuraba
3
0
0
YES
Quinton
Jackson
3
0
0
NO
Nick Jackson
3
0
0
NO
Stan Hansen
2
10
0
YES
The
Undertaker
2
8
0
YES
Vader
2
6
0
YES
AJ Styles
2
6
0
NO
Terry Funk
2
6
0
YES
Owen Hart
2
5
0
NO
Sabu
2
5
0
NO
Shelton
Benjamin
2
5
0
NO
Alex Shelley
2
5
0
NO
Dana White
2
0
9
NO
Randy Savage
2
4
1
YES
Nobuhiko
Takada
2
4
1
YES
Nigel
Mcguinness
2
4
1
NO
Jake Roberts
2
4
0
NO
Tatsumi
Fujinami
2
4
0
YES
Santino
Marella
2
4
0
NO
Randy Orton
2
3
0
NO
RVD
2
3
0
NO
Dynamite Kid
2
3
0
YES
John Morrison
2
3
0
NO
JBL
2
1
3
NO
Chigusa
Nagayo
2
2
2
YES
Johnny Grunge
2
2
0
NO
Rocco Rock
2
2
0
NO
Chris Sabin
2
2
0
NO
Bubba Ray
Dudley
2
2
0
NO
Ultimate
Warrior
2
2
0
NO
Tiger Mask
2
2
0
YES
Jimmy Hart
2
0
3
NO
Perro Aguayo
Jr
2
1
0
NO
Ryusuke
Taguchi
2
1
0
NO
Naruki Doi
2
1
0
NO
Kensuke
Sasaki
2
1
0
YES
Samson Fuyuki
2
1
0
NO
Satoshi
Kojima
2
1
0
NO
Takao Omori
2
1
0
NO
Goldberg
2
1
0
NO
Ricky
Steamboat
2
1
0
YES
Jumbo Tsuruta
2
1
0
YES
Tatsuhito
Takaiwa
2
1
0
NO
Mirko Cro Cop
2
0
0
NO
Anderson
Silva
2
0
0
NO
Cibernetico
2
0
0
NO
Ole Anderson
2
0
0
NO
D-Von Dudley
2
0
0
NO
Jimmy Del Ray
2
0
0
NO
Davey Boy
Smith
2
0
0
NO
Wanderlei
Silva
2
0
0
NO
Masato
Yoshino
2
0
0
NO
Sid Justice
2
0
0
NO
Ashura Hara
2
0
0
NO
Tully
Blanchard
2
0
0
NO
John
Laurinaitis
2
0
0
NO
Yamato
2
0
0
NO
Dennis
Condrey
2
0
0
YES
Mima Shimoda
2
0
0
NO
Toshiyo
Yamada
2
0
0
NO
Randy Couture
2
0
0
NO
Etsuko Mita
2
0
0
NO
Vince McMahon
1
1
25
YES
Bruiser Brody
1
8
0
YES
Juventud
Guerrera
1
7
0
NO
Brian Pillman
1
7
0
NO
Bobby Heenan
1
0
11
YES
Masato Tanaka
1
6
0
NO
It's possible to take all of this information (years in each category, points in each category, total awards) and run a regression on wrestlers where the y-variable is whether a wrestler is currently in the HOF.
Looking at the top 450 wrestlers among these metrics, the sample has 83 WO Hall of Famers.
The prediction equation is compared against all of the wrestlers.
HOF wrestlers have a median prediction score of 0.33 and an average of 0.43 (25th quartile is 0.16 while 75th quartile is 0.58). Non-HOF wrestlers have a median prediction score of 0.10 and an average of 0.13 (25th quartile is 0.05 and 75th quartile is 0.16).
There are 18 non-HOF candidates who have prediction score over 0.33 (which was both the median for the HOF wrestlers as well as equal to twice the average of non-HOF plus two standard deviations).
Non-HOF People with Prediction Scores above 0.33
Those strongest candidates are wrestlers Bryan Danielson (0.76), CM Punk (0.61), Sting (0.60), Shinjiro Otani (0.45), Edge (0.42), Mistico (0.41), Samoa Joe (0.38), Sabu (0.37), Brock Lesnar (0.37), Naomichi Marufuji (0.35), William Regal (0.33), Yuji Nagata (0.33), Owen Hart (0.33), and Eddie Gilbert (0.33) whose awards were split between five Best Booker nominations (including one win in 1988) and best heel/brawler/most underrated nods. The non-wrestlers Mike Tenay (WCW/TNA announcer, 0.44), Dana White (UFC promoter, 0.35), Joe Silva (UFC booker, 0.35) and Gabe Sapolsky (ROH/DGUSA booker, 0.38).
Some of these people are already on the ballot (Sting, Brock Lesnar, Yuji Nagata, Owen Hart, Edge). Others will be eligible in upcoming years (Bryan Danielson, CM Punk, Mistico). Sabu was eliminated from the ballot in 2010, a fate that originally happened in Sting in 1998 (prior to his return to the ballot following the end of WCW and his in-ring return with TNA). At this time, it's unlikely that Otani, Samoa Joe, William Regal or Eddie Gilbert will be added to the ballot soon.
As for current HOF wrestlers who have been inducted but have prediction scores 0.33, they were an eclectic mix.
HOF Wrestlers with Prediction Scores under 0.33
Joshi legends: Aja Kong, Akira Hokuto, Bull Nakano, Chigusa Nagayo, Dump MatsumotoBookers/Promoters:Antonio Pena, Bill Watts, Paco Alonso, Pat PattersonManagers: Captain Lou AlbanoFormer Champions:Bob Backlund, Harley Race,Dusty Rhodes, Antonio Inoki, Nick BockwinkelAnnouncers:Dr Alfonso Morales, Gordon SolieIconic tag teams:Midnight Express (Dennis Condrey, Stan Lane), Road Warriors (Road Warrior Hawk & Road Warrior Animal) and Buddy Roberts (from the Freebirds)
Japanese Stars: Genichiro Tenryu, Hiroshi Hase, Jumbo Tsuruta, Masa Saito, Shinya Hashimoto, Tatsumi Fujinami,Tiger Mask, Masa ChonoMexican Legends:Dos Caras, Perro Aguayo80s Stars: Randy Savage, Ricky Steamboat, Dynamite Kid
Remaining Characters
2005 induction: Triple H (0.29) = continues to play major storyline (and real backstage) role in WWE along with occasional big match wrestler
2004 induction: Ultimo Dragon (0.28) = induction included his legacy as a trainer (Torymon)
2013 induction: Hiroshi Tanahashi (0.28) = after a huge year in NJPW, his score may dramatically rise when 2013 results are included
2013 induction: Kensuke Sasaki (0.12) = has held IWGP, GHC and AJPW Triple Crown titles; at age 47, continues to wrestle for various groups in Japan
2004 induction: Kazushi Sakuraba (0.14) = the famed "Gracie Hunter" prominently achieved MMA success (especially in Pride) alongisde his Japanese pro-wrestling
2009 induction: Konnan (0.15) = continues to have a major role in running AAA along; inducted for legacy of his major success in mid-90s Mexico
My takeaway from this is the three people who seem to be strongest future candidates are:
BRYAN DANIELSON
MOST UNDERRATED: 5. American Dragon [2001]
READERS´ FAVORITE WRESTLER: 5. American Dragon [2002]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 4. Bryan Danielson [2003]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 2. Bryan Danielson (253) 1838 [2004]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 3. Bryan Danielson (52) 617 [2004]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. Bryan Danielson (321) 2,240 [2005]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (401) 2,646 [2006]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (593) 3,266 [2006]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 4. Bryan Danielson (83) 947 [2006]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 1. Bryan Danielson (434) - 2,646 [2007]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. Bryan Danielson (529) - 2,928 [2007]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 2. Bryan Danielson (77) - 928 [2007]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (325) 2,042 [2008]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (582) 3,231 [2008]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (218) 1,838 [2009]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (401) 2,478 [2009]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 1. DANIEL BRYAN (269) 2,037 [2010]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. DANIEL BRYAN (370)2,765 [2010]
BEST GIMMICK: 2. Nexus 79 [2010]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. DANIEL BRYAN (263) 1,829 [2011]
MOST UNDERRATED: 2. Daniel Bryan (112) 840 [2011]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 3. Daniel Bryan (104) 948 [2011]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. DANIEL BRYAN (391) 2,513 [2012]
TAG TEAM OF THE YEAR: 2. Kane & Daniel Bryan (124) 1,219 [2012]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 3. Daniel Bryan (153) 1,273 [2012]
MOST UNDERRATED: 3. Daniel Bryan (56) 357 [2012]
BEST GIMMICK: 3. Daniel Bryan Yes/No 111 [2012]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 5. Daniel Bryan (5) 204 [2012]
MOST CHARISMATIC: 5. Daniel Bryan (67) 539 [2012]
CM PUNK
BEST GIMMICK: 2. CM Punk [2003]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 5. CM Punk [2003]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 5. C.M. Punk (43) 619 [2004]
BEST GIMMICK: 5. C.M. Punk straight edge 44 [2004]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 2. CM Punk (82) 830 [2005]
BEST GIMMICK: 4. C.M. Punk 39 [2006]
BEST GIMMICK: 1. C.M. PUNK STRAIGHT EDGE SOCIETY 287 [2009]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 2. C.M. Punk (205) 1,836 [2009]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 4. C.M. Punk (53) 714 [2009]
BEST TELEVISION ANNOUNCER: 3. C.M. Punk (59)525 [2010]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 3. C.M. Punk (85)920 [2010]
BEST GIMMICK: 3. C.M. Punk Straight Edge Society 47 [2010]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 1. C.M. PUNK (338) 2,594 [2011]
BEST GIMMICK: 1. C.M. PUNK 160 [2011]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 2. C.M. Punk (248) 2,102 [2011]
MOST CHARISMATIC: 3. C.M. Punk (81) 978 [2011]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 4. C.M. Punk (2) 273 [2011]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 1. C.M. PUNK (365) 2,668 [2012]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 2. C.M. Punk (294) 2,325 [2012]
MOST CHARISMATIC: 4. C.M. Punk (107) 1,032 [2012]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 5. C.M. Punk (34) 469 [2012]
BEST GIMMICK: 5. C.M. Punk all year as champion 58 [2012]
MISTICO
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 2. Mistico (106) 1,303 [2005]
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 2. Mistico (310) 2,420 [2005]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 4. Mistico (62) 795 [2005]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 1. MISTICO (220) 2,245 [2006]
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 1. MISTICO (346) 2,957 [2006]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 1. MISTICO (377) 3,112 [2006]
MOST CHARISMATIC: 5. Mistico (7) 611 [2006]
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 1. Mistico (162) - 1,394 [2007]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 3. Mistico (133) - 1,603 [2007]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 2. Mistico (118) 1,525 [2008]
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 3. Mistico (115) 1,510 [2008]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 5. Mistico (16) 227 [2009]
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 5. Mistico (41) 502 [2009]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 4. Mistico (3)348 [2010]
In terms of stock, certainly Bryan Danielson has had a stronger year, though he looks to be receiving a recent "de-push" following the release of disappointing SummerSlam PPV numbers and inability to defeat Randy Orton for the title. Similarly, CM Punk has moved from being part of the top title picture to an extended feud with former manager Paul Heyman to a program working alongside Daniel Bryan against the Wyatt Family. Mistico, a strong Mexico candidate, has languished in WWE as Sin Cara through his combination of injuries, suspension and disinterest or distrust (for perceived attitude problems) from the company to make him a major player. All Analysis by Chris Harrington (chris.harrington@gmail.com)
posted by Indeed Wrestling at 10:22 AM on Nov 8, 2013
"Wrestling Observer Awards and Wrestling Observer HOF - exploring connections"
No comments yet. -