Post a Comment On: Indeed Wrestling

I wrote a new piece at WhatCulture looking at the top Raw Viewership movers over a three-year period.  I refreshed all of my data and included some rating change calculations (as opposed to just viewership #s) so I would have a deeper dataset that covered more weeks.  Then I made an Excel macro that looked at the trending data (red dots) vs individual observations (blue dots) for the top 90 appearing wrestlers which you can see by clicking on individual's names.  (Full piece up at https://sites.google.com/site/chrisharrington/mookieghana-prowrestlingstatistics/wwe_raw_ratings_2011_2013 )

Wrestler Count  Average  AJ 48 3,354 Aksana 9 (293,667) Alberto Del Rio 119 25,218 Alex Riley 37 161,911 Alicia Fox 29 (188,556) Antonio Cesaro 44 (139,364) Battle Royal 18 78,166 Beth Phoenix 20 (125,200) Big E Langston 15 (95,267) Big Show 74 158,822 Brad Maddox 16 178,813 Bray Wyatt 10 (178,600) Brie Bella 39 (252,796) Brock Lesnar 23 450,435 Brodus Clay 48 (75,083) Chris Jericho 58 78,840 Christian 34 (36,176) CM Punk 158 272,788 Cody Rhodes 71 (104,573) Curtis Axel 14 222,786 Damien Sandow 47 (164,000) Daniel Bryan 142 47,800 Darren Young 28 (129,571) David Otunga 51 (46,911) Dean Ambrose 50 154,048 Dolph Ziggler 140 (25,618) Drew McIntyre 27 (167,082) Edge 14 122,484 Epico 22 (208,955) Evan Bourne 26 (233,437) Eve Torres 61 (82,497) Ezekiel Jackson 10 62,095 Fandango 26 (204,308) Great Khali 31 (107,965) Heath Slater 53 (62,335) HHH 58 349,119 Jack Swagger 89 (120,165) Jerry Lawler 29 158,108 Jim Ross 9 417,657 Jinder Mahal 29 (156,138) John Cena 201 389,007 John Laurinaitis 37 219,892 John Morrison 45 (86,383) Justin Gabriel 23 13,998 Kaitlyn 26 (77,846) Kane 93 50,746 Kelly Kelly 29 (191,425) Kofi Kingston 90 (188,258) Layla 26 (231,994) Mark Henry 68 48,779 Maryse 13 (148,950) Mason Ryan 9 (226,111) Melina 12 (105,809) Michael Cole 27 84,462 Michael McGillicutty 18 (293,749) Mick Foley 9 543,000 Miz 151 125,606 Naomi 11 (364,364) Natalya 34 (203,896) Nexus 9 149,892 Nikki Bella 31 (265,131) Paul Heyman 50 319,540 Primo 24 (192,125) Randy Orton 112 102,425 Rey Mysterio 39 8,340 Ricardo Rodriguez 13 (29,462) Rock 35 431,514 Roman Reigns 50 170,528 R-Truth 94 12,302 RVD 9 (52,000) Ryback 64 104,469 Santino Marella 74 (208,406) Seth Rollins 51 160,753 Shawn Michaels 16 267,188 Sheamus 125 11,769 Sin Cara 37 (65,865) Stephanie McMahon 15 167,667 Tamina 12 (88,984) Ted DiBiase 18 (95,475) Tensai 38 (48,421) Titus O'Neil 28 (138,500) Tyson Kidd 20 (103,444) Undertaker 15 474,933 Usos 22 (194,307) Vickie Guerrero 52 89,955 Vince McMahon 25 334,790 Vladimir Kozlov 12 (11,460) Wade Barrett 65 66,828 Zack Ryder 66 (170,888) Zeb Colter 9 (87,556)
Please note that these numbers are over three years, include overrun, are evenly weighted and include some noise (such as video packages).  I've said it before and I'll say it again: It's an imperfect science.  But there's some interesting things to be see, particularly in the 3-month trend lines.
For instance, look at R-Truth:
[Image]
You can see how when he started working against Cena & the Rock, his numbers were huge.  Then they returned to normal, which is no real impact.  This says a lot that if WWE puts you in the spotlight, especially in the overrun segment, you're going to seem like a star.  The question is just can you make a difference over the long run, especially when you're not in just in the top slot?
Another interesting test case is Mark Henry.  .  
[Image]
When he's treated like a main eventer, there's flashes of being a big deal, but other times, he's just another guy
It's easy to contrast that with John Cena who is always large and in charge.  
[Image]
This is a three-month trending line (with a minimum of four appearance to earn a red dot) so you'll see a complete line even though Cena has been out periodically for his injuries.
And if we're going to talk about top guys, behold Randall Orton:
[Image] At live events he certainly gets loud reactions, but he hasn't been someone who meant a lot over the long haul, at least not since 2012.  You do see the swell towards the end of the dataset (which went through 10/7/13) where he was increasingly returning the top of the card to feud with (who else) John Cena and Big Show.
Speaking of Paul Wight: [Image]
Big Show actually made my top 16 positive rating movers list. That's unlike some of the newer faces - Dolph Ziggler, Big E Langston, Cesaro, Fandango, Sandow:
[Image] [Image] [Image] [Image] [Image]

Then you have the divas, which are often put in the death spot.  And it shows.
[Image] [Image] [Image]
Next to Cena, CM Punk was probably the next regular performer with a strong track record:
[Image]
The other proven group was The Shield (i'll show three, but it's all really the same story): [Image] [Image] [Image]
Lastly, there's Mr. Beardhat. (Seriously, what the hell?!) [Image] Daniel Bryan's numbers aren't stunning.  Again, it's going to be function of when you're pushed and when you're in the overrun segments, but until the last quarter, he was below average.  However, the wild swings suggest there might be some momentum and future for him as a top level guy; we'll just have to see how it plays out! [Image]
Certainly, some food for thought.