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Oil Increases
Our balance of payments does not improve
From 1973-2008, 35 years, and presidents Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush, the USA neither takes unequivocal steps to to what it has always done, FIND A SOLUTION to being at the mercy of other nations for a basic commodity, nor does it even take the situation seriously enough to prioritize production of domestic fossil fuels over pretty scenery (California's Channel Islands) or nightmare scenario worst case environmental fear mongering.
Despite all we do in post industrial America, real tangible production moves to low wages developing nations, and we still need things manufactured SOMEWHERE
This drives the balance of payments more negative.
Perception overseas is that we will not change this.
The Cold War ends victoriously for America, justifying everyone who saw America as the place for safely placing Capital, and the ultimate refuge for wealth preservation.
Oil increases.
We are attacked and within a few years Vietnam like population loss of will infects our response to New York and DC being attacked. This is noted.
Oil increases.
Bank greed invents methods to sell mortgages to people with no reasonable chance of paying if interest goes up
Risk managers look at these new products without the true caution their title suggests
Within 3-4 years interest starts to increase as everything we buy needs to be transported and is being impacted by dead plants and animals placed in the ground of our enemies.
The spreading unease results in a credit and liquidity tightening severe enough for the fed to launch a cycle of rate decreases, which cheapens the dollar and drives oil higher
Nations inimical to us, both with huge reserves of fossil fuels (Russia) and huge reserves of low wage production workers (China) begin using the generated cash to arm themselves, as we remain in Iran and Afghanistan where our allies (Canada and Britain excepted) refuse to bear their share of burden, and we can do nothing about it within the strongest and most enduring alliance the world has seen. Other nations take note and stamp the word FORMERLY between 'and & most.'
Mortgages begin to move towards default and banks and investment houses are unable to sell securities based on them. The increased risk increases interest further, and the situation accelerates.
The general increase in defaults punctures the population's lack of knowledge and we all find out about this.
The NIE is released and the world realizes that with Bush unable to control his own govt, and this document in the public fold, we are going to do NOTHING about this threat to our close ally(ies), if not ourselves.
The perception is we CAN do nothing, which is precisely what this enemy has been saying for 29 years.
Oil hits $100/barrel after this
Chavez begins agitating to leave the dollar.
Chavez is still THERE.
Citibank needs to get $7.4 billion in cash from overseas Arab wealth funds to survive.
Fear spreads thru the banking sector.
The CIA warns the congressional intelligence committee in closed hearings that for the first time in history our sovereign decision making ability may be affected by economic holdings of dollar reserves of foreign powers.
Bear Stearns the 5th largest investment bank, exposed in this mortgage investment greedathon sees it's stock value go from above $150/share to $4 as depositors finally wake up and strip them naked as well. JP Morgan buys them with Fed help.
Oil is at $108 and gold punctures $1000.ounce and is at $1011
The Fed moves aggressively to inject cash and drop rates, increasing pressure on oil to go further up as well as gold.
The dollar now goes so low so fast that American tourists in Amsterdam CANNOT GET GUILDERS FOR DOLLARS
Capital leaves the dollar as no end to this cycle is in sight
Asian investment houses announce yesterday they will no longer deal with Lehman Brothers, another American securities firm.
How will their share value do in this storm now?
Who is next?
WHAT is next in this cycle?

As should be obvious, underlying all this is the amoral judgment by capital of lack of faith in America, and Americans. Capital decides. There is no use in arguing with the movement of capital.

It's time to DO something.

Our leaders are blind.

Manhattan Project on energy. One fell swoop, the major problems solved.

Short of this we are in for very rough times. Short of this, the entire cycle will continue and accelerate and every sine wave's amplitude will increase. Short of this the American people's fear will cause them to stop spending, stop paying credit card bills or on time to have cash and start changing their behavior dramatically as THEY amorally judge what they have to do due to lack of confidence in America.

If we each that point jihad will be a very small consideration in the chaos
Tangible steps must be taken, and be SEEN to be taken
It's time to DO something.
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